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Correlation

How fake diversification hides concentrated risk, and how to measure what your portfolio really holds.

The whole course

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The strategies, scores and signals here are produced by an algorithmic system and based on technical data only. They are not investment advice or a substitute for professional advice, we are not investment advisors. Trading involves risk, and every decision and action is solely the user's responsibility.

Portfolio & psychologyLesson 31 of 344 min

Correlation

An investor holding five semiconductor stocks thinks they have five positions. In reality they have one position in size five, and it will fall all at once on the same day.

What moves together

Stocks in the same sector move together. Unprofitable growth names move together against interest-rate moves. Companies dependent on the same large customer or the same raw material move together even in different industries. And in real market stress the correlation between almost everything jumps to one — precisely when diversification was supposed to help.

The practical test needs no math: look at the portfolio and ask what happens on a day when rates surprise higher, or when one sector collapses. If the answer is "most of it falls together", you're concentrated, not diversified.

The working rule

Cap exposure to any single sector — commonly 25–30% of the account. Count open risk by groups rather than by positions: if four positions in one sector risk one percent each, that's four percent of risk in a single group, and that is almost always too much.

Real diversification is measured in different revenue sources and different risk drivers, not in the number of rows in the account. Three companies from genuinely different industries diversify more than ten from the same one.

Terms from this lesson

מתאםCorrelation
How closely two assets move together. In a crisis it rises toward one.
פיזורDiversification
Holding assets with different risk drivers, not merely several different names.
חשיפה סקטוריאליתSector Exposure
How much of the portfolio depends on a single industry.
סיכון ריכוזיותConcentration Risk
The risk that several positions all respond to the same driver.

Practical checklist

  • I checked how much of the portfolio depends on one sector
  • I counted open risk by correlated groups
  • I asked what happens to the portfolio on a single stress day

Continue here

Track your portfolio and its spreadNext: concentration and sizing
The full glossary
Previous lessonBuilding a thesis and a strategyNext lessonConcentration versus diversification
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