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Finding long-term companies

The quantitative screen, and how to tell real growth from growth that was bought with money.

The whole course

Disclosure, not advice

The strategies, scores and signals here are produced by an algorithmic system and based on technical data only. They are not investment advice or a substitute for professional advice, we are not investment advisors. Trading involves risk, and every decision and action is solely the user's responsibility.

Long-term investingLesson 29 of 345 min

Finding long-term companies

A quantitative screen shrinks the world. But the question that separates an investor from a collector of tickers isn't "who is growing" — it's "where does the growth come from, and will it last".

The screen

Average revenue growth above 8% over three years. Gross margin stable or rising. Operating margin positive and improving. Return on invested capital above 12%. Positive free cash flow for at least three years. Leverage under 3. A share count that isn't growing, ideally shrinking. And a valuation that isn't at the top of the stock's own historical range.

The five questions that measure real growth

First: where does the growth come from — organic or acquired? An acquisition creates a revenue jump and burns cash, and it is not the same as a business growing under its own power. Second: price or volume? If prices merely rose, the engine will run out; if more units sold, there's genuine demand.

Third: what are margins doing while it grows — rising or falling? Fourth: does cash flow follow profit, or is the profit sitting in receivables and inventory? Fifth: is EPS growing faster or slower than net income — that is, buybacks or dilution?

Red flags

Receivables or inventory growing faster than revenue. A gross margin falling for three straight quarters. A widening gap between reported and adjusted results. Bloated stock compensation. Large debt maturing with no cash to meet it. An auditor or CFO replaced without explanation. Repeated redefinition of an "adjusted" metric the company reports on.

None of these is proof on its own. Two or three together in the same company are an excellent reason to pass and move to the next idea — there are thousands of companies, and no need to wrestle with this particular one.

Terms from this lesson

צמיחה אורגניתOrganic Growth
Growth from the existing business, without acquisitions. Higher quality than acquired growth.
שיעור צמיחה שנתי ממוצעCompound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
The average annual growth rate across several years.
כלל ה־40Rule of 40
In software: growth percent plus profit margin should exceed 40 combined.
שימור הכנסות מלקוחות קיימיםNet Revenue Retention (NRR)
How much revenue the same customers generate a year later. Above 110% is strong.
צבר הזמנותBacklog / RPO
Contracted revenue not yet recognised. It foreshadows coming quarters.

Practical checklist

  • The company passed every quantitative condition
  • I answered the five real-growth questions
  • I ran through the red-flag list
  • The growth is organic, not bought through acquisitions

Continue here

Screen by fundamental dataNext: building a thesis
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