Valuation and multiples
What a P/E actually says, why 40 can be cheap and 8 expensive, and which multiple fits which kind of company.
Disclosure, not advice
The strategies, scores and signals here are produced by an algorithmic system and based on technical data only. They are not investment advice or a substitute for professional advice, we are not investment advisors. Trading involves risk, and every decision and action is solely the user's responsibility.
Valuation and multiples
A multiple isn't a measure of cheap or expensive — it's a measure of expectations. A high multiple says the market expects growth; a low one says it expects trouble. The only question worth asking is whether that expectation is reasonable.
Price to earnings
Share price divided by earnings per share. A multiple of 20 means paying twenty years of current profit. There's also a forward multiple based on next year's earnings forecast — lower for a growing company, but it rests on analyst forecasts that are routinely wrong, especially at turning points.
40 can be cheap for a company growing 40% with rising margins, and 8 can be expensive for one whose revenue is shrinking. A proper comparison is always against two things: the stock's own history over the past five years, and genuinely comparable companies in the same industry.
Multiples by company type
An unprofitable company: a revenue multiple, because there's no profit to divide by. Companies with different debt loads: enterprise-value multiples, which neutralise capital structure and compare like with like. Banks and insurers: a price-to-book multiple, because their assets are money and the balance sheet is the business. Mature companies with steady cash: free-cash-flow yield — how much cash you receive relative to the price.
The rule that follows: a multiple suited to one kind of company is meaningless for another. Price-to-book on a software company is a number with no content, and a P/E on a company that just turned profitable jumps into the hundreds and teaches you nothing.
Discounted cash flow
The theoretically correct method: a company's value is all the cash it will produce in the future, discounted to today. The catch is that it's wildly sensitive to assumptions — shifting the long-run growth rate by two points can move the answer by tens of percent. So use it as a thinking tool that forces explicit assumptions, not as a calculator that returns a "fair price".
The best practical use is inverted: instead of computing the value, ask what growth the current price already assumes. If the answer is "another twenty years at 30% a year", you know exactly what you're buying.
Terms from this lesson
- מכפיל רווחP/E Ratio
- Price divided by earnings per share. How many years of current profit you pay.
- מכפיל עתידיForward P/E
- The multiple on next year's forecast earnings. It depends on forecasts that err.
- מכפיל מול צמיחהPEG Ratio
- The P/E divided by the growth rate. Around 1 is considered reasonable.
- מכפיל שווי פעילותEV/EBITDA
- A multiple that neutralises debt structure, comparing differently levered companies fairly.
- מכפיל הוןPrice to Book (P/B)
- Price divided by equity. Relevant for banks and insurers, meaningless for software.
Practical checklist
- I picked a multiple that fits this kind of company
- I compared against the stock's own history
- I compared against genuinely comparable peers
- I articulated what growth the current price already assumes

